The Reel Deal » Golden Globes

Predicting The Golden Globe Winners, Because I Have To

ian0592 — Thu, 09 Jan 2014 20:07:00 +0000

At this point, saying that the Golden Globes are pointless is about as original as saying that M. Night Shyamalan is a crappy director. The awards don’t mean anything, but on the bright side, you get to watch really famous people get drunk and congratulate themselves. Really though, the only reason to stick around is to watch Tina Fey and Amy Poehler host for the second year in a row. At this point, they basically have a residency that won’t get old as quickly as the one Billy Joel has at Madison Square Garden.

I like to write about movies, so that gives me an obligation to write about the awards, too. It is easy to immediately dismiss the Globes because they once nominated “The Tourist” For Best Comedy/Musical. But just remember that the Oscars once gave “The King’s Speech” Best Picture instead of “The Social Network.” The Golden Globes are a nice, light appetizer to the big feast. But enough with food metaphors. Here are my predictions for Sunday’s show, which I will present without any explanation because the Golden Globes deserve no further intellectual thought:

Note: In case it is not clear, whatever is in bold represents my prediction for the winner of whichever given category.

Best Drama

12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush

Best Musical/Comedy

American Hustle
Her
Inside Lleweyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Best Actress in a Drama

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Best Actor in a Drama

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo Di Caprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Best Screenplay

Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope/Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle

Best Foreign Language Film

Blue is the Warmest Color

The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises

Best Animated Feature

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen

Best Original Song

“Atlas,” The Hunger Games, Catching Fire
“Let It Go,” Frozen
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Please Mr. Kennedy,” Inside Llewyn Davis
“Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance

Best Score

Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Alex Heffes, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Steven Price, Gravity
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

TELEVISION

Best TV Comedy or Musical

Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Best TV Drama

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex

Best Actress in a TV Drama

Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Best Actress in a TV Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Best Actor in a TV Drama

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist

Best Actor in a TV Comedy

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

American Horror Story: Coven
Behind the Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
White Queen

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson, White Queen
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba, Luther
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Show, Miniseries or TV Movie

Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer, White Queen
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Show, Miniseries or TV Movie

Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Golden Globes 2012: My Predictions

ian0592 — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:46:00 +0000

Since the Golden Globes don’t mean much towards the Oscars, and they are actually kind of a sham (last year, “Burlesque” was nominated after some actions that most people would consider to be corrupt), I will not spend too much time analyzing who will win and why. The Globes are a fun night to watch everyone in Hollywood get drunk and compliment each other. However, with Ricky Gervais hosting again, another large scale takedown seems possible.

Since you probably don’t care much anyway, without much further adieu, here are my predicted winners for tonight’s Golden Globes in all of the major film categories*:

Best Picture (Drama): The Descendants Upset: The Help

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy^): The Artist Upset: Midnight in Paris

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) Upset: Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

Best Actor (Drama): George Clooney (The Descendants) Upset: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Best Actress (Drama): Viola Davis (The Help) Upset: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Jean Dujardin (The Artist) Upset: Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) Upset: Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners) Upset: Jonah Hill (Moneyball)

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help) Upset: Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

Best Screenplay: The Descendants

*I have neglected to include the TV nominees, as the absence of “Breaking Bad,” “Community,” and “Parks & Recreation” lead me to believe that those categories don’t even exist this year.
^This is among the dumbest pairings of all time.

Golden Globes ’11: Predictions

ian0592 — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 17:38:00 +0000

Over the past year, my thinking on the Golden Globes has drastically changed. Mainly, it’s come to my attention that they really don’t matter. The HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) doesn’t vote for the Oscars. Mainly though, it’s impossible to find relevance in some of these nominations. Really, how can someone be respected who nominates “Alice in Wonderland,” “Red,” and “The Tourist” for Best Comedy/Musical? There is so much wrong with this that I don’t even want to get into it right now.

Beyond that, the Golden Globes hold an inexplicable amount of importance in society. Because of that (and for Ricky Gervais), I will give you my predictions for the Golden Globes.

Now, predicting the Globes are slightly different from most other awards. Mainly, predicting the Globes involves examining a few strange possibilities (which actor is more foreign, which actor is named Johnny Depp).

Based on this tiresome and infuriating process, these are the winners you should bank on (movie categories only):

Best Drama: The Social Network

Best Comedy/Musical: The Kids Are All Right

Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor (Drama): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (Drama): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Actor (Comedy): Johnny Depp (Alice in Wonderland)

Best Actress (Comedy): Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Fighter)

Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Film: Biutiful

The Hurt Locker: A New Frontrunner?

ian0592 — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 23:17:00 +0000

Well, I guess was wrong.

Just one week ago, all of the Oscar buzz was in favor of “Avatar.” After dominating the box office for over a month, the film picked up the Golden Globes for Best Picture and Director. From reporters to ordinary moviegoers, no one would stop talking about “Avatar.” It was riding an unstoppable wave to the top.

Then, one of the most important precursors to the Oscars, the Producers Guild of America, announced its pick for Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker.” While “The Hurt Locker” picked up nearly every major critics’ award, it went home empty handed at the Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Now, just one award might not mean “Avatar” is a total goner. However, the Globes are not known as a very good predictor for the Oscars (sorry, “Hangover” fans). The Guild Awards are usually much more accurate, as much of the voting body for the Guilds also vote for the Oscars. Meanwhile, the HFPA, who vote for the Globes, are an entirely separate voting body.

This news still stuns me. While “The Hurt Locker” is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, its box office can’t help it much. “The Hurt Locker” made about $12 million domestically. That’s less than half of what “Avatar” made on its opening day.

Now, Best Picture winners don’t necessarily need to be blockbusters like “Avatar,” however I do recall people saying that the $54 million gross was too low.

Going beyond money, “The Hurt Locker” makes sense as a Best Picture winner. Not only is it a masterpiece, but it’s a defining film of our time. It is by far the best film made yet about the Iraq War. It’s a film that combines brilliant directing and technical mastery with fantastic performances and solid writing. Not to mention, it can go down as one of the most suspenseful films I’ve ever seen.

Also, awarding “The Hurt Locker” would be something of a brilliant move on the Academy’s part. In a year where the Academy extended the field to 10 movies in order to attract bigger movies (and more viewers), nominating a little seen independent film like “The Hurt Locker” would be a hilarious screw you to the American public. Well, at least I’ll be laughing.

“The Hurt Locker” might even have a bigger shot in the Best Director category. Kathryn Bigelow did an outstanding job giving her film a documentary feel and bringing out the highest level of tension in situations that involved absolutely no blood shed. This is the kind of work someone should win Awards for, and depending on which direction the DGA goes, I have a strong feeling that this could end up being the first year a woman picks up the prize for Best Director.

Then again, the Oscar nominations have yet to even come out. Who knows, maybe voters will shock us all and nominate neither. That’s highly unlikely. One thing is for sure though: after years of easily predicted frontrunners (“No Country for Old Men,” “Slumdog Millionaire”), we finally have little clue who is going to win. This could turn out to be one of the more exciting Oscar years in our lifetime.

Side Note: I can’t forget to mention that “Inglourious Basterds,” still my favorite movie of the year, one the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. Actors make up the largest portion of the Academy, and there is always a possibility that “Basterds” could pull of an upset like “Crash” did after it beat out “Brokeback Mountain” for the Best Ensemble prize. I can dream, can’t I?

Golden Globes: A Night for Blue Aliens. And Mike Tyson

ian0592 — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 05:20:00 +0000

Well, mainstream comedy certainly has something to celebrate.

2010 marked the first time in years that the winner of the Best Musical/Comedy category at the Golden Globes was not a musical or a sophisticated indie black comedy. Rather, it was “The Hangover,” a comedy that worked so well and basically earned* its award because it was just so refreshingly funny.

This might mean little for “The Hangover”‘s Oscar chances. It probably has a slim shot at Best Picture, but a Best Screenplay nomination is likely its best shot.

Still, I don’t see the Golden Globes as much of a predictor for the Oscars. I think it’s more of a way of seeing what people in the inner film circles are excited about at the moment. In that case my thinking was confirmed, “Avatar” is the official frontrunner for Best Picture. Yes, voters walked onto Pandora, and now they simply can’t seem to get away. Hopefully, they’re not as crazy as these people. I’m not necessarily happy that “Avatar” is stealing the thunder from several other more worthy films, but I have to hand it to James Cameron: never in a million years did I think the entire world would fall in love with a three hour movie about ten foot tall blue-cat-monkey people.

The other film I suspected as a spoiler for “Avatar,” “Up in the Air,” faired only decently tonight. It took home a well deserved Best Screenplay award, solidifying it as by far the front runner for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Meanwhile, the two best supporting actors were officially confirmed as the front runners. Christoph Waltz was the first thing on everyone’s mind from the second audiences first saw him ask for a glass of milk. Meanwhile, I knew Mo’Nique was the only imaginable winner from the minute I saw what was then called “Push” at Sundance.

Another big film, “The Hurt Locker,” went home totally empt handed. However, it has been gaining much momentum lately so I do expect it to do much better at the Oscars. Plus, it’s sweeping of the Critics Choice Awards were a very promising sign. That $12 million at the box office though, really isn’t.

The lead acting categories are a whole other story. Robert Downey Jr. should be happy with his win for “Sherlock Holmes” and expect nothing further. While George Clooney still has something of a shot, Jeff Bridges seems like the real man to beat right now. I haven’t seen Bridges’ performance in “Crazy Heart” yet, but to Bridges’ awards success I say: Dude Abides.

The most unpredictable category this year is the Best Actress category. There are four very possible candidates right now, and two who equally have a clear shot at winning. Meryl Streep has a good shot for “Julie & Julia” simply because, she’s Meryl Streep. Plus, her performance has gotten nothing but absolute raves. Sandra Bullock’s performance in “The Blind Side” also has a very good shot. Not only has she been lauded for her performance, but the film itself has become something of an underdog. Its amazing box office success was expected by no one. Perhaps this could play into votes.

Unfortunately, there still seems like little hope for “Inglourious Basterds” besides Christoph Waltz. I have a good feeling “Basterds” might’ve won Best Screenplay tonight if the Globes split it up into two separate categories. Only the WGA Awards will be able to answer that. In the mean time, Tarantino will have to wait another few years for his long deserved Best Director Oscar. If Scorsese (who was honored tonight) could wait 40 years, then so can he.

On a side note: am I the only one bothered by the fact that Best Drama always seems to be more significant to analysts than Best Comedy? Seriously, when will people start taking Comedies more seriously.

*I would’ve voted for “(500) Days of Summer.” “The Hangover” might’ve been the funniest comedy of the year, but it wasn’t the most brilliantly made.

Full List of Winners Here.