The Reel Deal » Predictions

Predicting The Golden Globe Winners, Because I Have To

ian0592 — Thu, 09 Jan 2014 20:07:00 +0000

At this point, saying that the Golden Globes are pointless is about as original as saying that M. Night Shyamalan is a crappy director. The awards don’t mean anything, but on the bright side, you get to watch really famous people get drunk and congratulate themselves. Really though, the only reason to stick around is to watch Tina Fey and Amy Poehler host for the second year in a row. At this point, they basically have a residency that won’t get old as quickly as the one Billy Joel has at Madison Square Garden.

I like to write about movies, so that gives me an obligation to write about the awards, too. It is easy to immediately dismiss the Globes because they once nominated “The Tourist” For Best Comedy/Musical. But just remember that the Oscars once gave “The King’s Speech” Best Picture instead of “The Social Network.” The Golden Globes are a nice, light appetizer to the big feast. But enough with food metaphors. Here are my predictions for Sunday’s show, which I will present without any explanation because the Golden Globes deserve no further intellectual thought:

Note: In case it is not clear, whatever is in bold represents my prediction for the winner of whichever given category.

Best Drama

12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush

Best Musical/Comedy

American Hustle
Her
Inside Lleweyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Best Actress in a Drama

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Best Actor in a Drama

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo Di Caprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Best Screenplay

Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope/Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle

Best Foreign Language Film

Blue is the Warmest Color

The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises

Best Animated Feature

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen

Best Original Song

“Atlas,” The Hunger Games, Catching Fire
“Let It Go,” Frozen
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Please Mr. Kennedy,” Inside Llewyn Davis
“Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance

Best Score

Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Alex Heffes, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Steven Price, Gravity
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

TELEVISION

Best TV Comedy or Musical

Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Best TV Drama

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex

Best Actress in a TV Drama

Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Best Actress in a TV Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Best Actor in a TV Drama

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist

Best Actor in a TV Comedy

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

American Horror Story: Coven
Behind the Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
White Queen

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson, White Queen
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba, Luther
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Show, Miniseries or TV Movie

Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer, White Queen
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Show, Miniseries or TV Movie

Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Golden Globes 2012: My Predictions

ian0592 — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:46:00 +0000

Since the Golden Globes don’t mean much towards the Oscars, and they are actually kind of a sham (last year, “Burlesque” was nominated after some actions that most people would consider to be corrupt), I will not spend too much time analyzing who will win and why. The Globes are a fun night to watch everyone in Hollywood get drunk and compliment each other. However, with Ricky Gervais hosting again, another large scale takedown seems possible.

Since you probably don’t care much anyway, without much further adieu, here are my predicted winners for tonight’s Golden Globes in all of the major film categories*:

Best Picture (Drama): The Descendants Upset: The Help

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy^): The Artist Upset: Midnight in Paris

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) Upset: Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

Best Actor (Drama): George Clooney (The Descendants) Upset: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Best Actress (Drama): Viola Davis (The Help) Upset: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Jean Dujardin (The Artist) Upset: Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) Upset: Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners) Upset: Jonah Hill (Moneyball)

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help) Upset: Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

Best Screenplay: The Descendants

*I have neglected to include the TV nominees, as the absence of “Breaking Bad,” “Community,” and “Parks & Recreation” lead me to believe that those categories don’t even exist this year.
^This is among the dumbest pairings of all time.

The Oscars: Who Will Win

ian0592 — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 02:49:00 +0000

Best Picture: The King’s Speech

For a good portion of 2010, “The Social Network” seemed like the definite frontrunner. Along with sweeping every early award, it was a critic and audience darling. That’s a rare find. Then suddenly, a little indie presented as a classic Best Picture came along and a truly interesting Oscar race was born. While there could be a slim chance of a “Social Network” upset, the royalty-ladden “The King’s Speech,” which took home the Producers Guild Award, will be this year’s Best Picture winner.

Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Common sense might put Tom Hooper as winner here. He did win the Directors Guild Award, and his debut work on “The King’s Speech” was so impressive that it might as well have been the work of an old pro. Yet, this year will be the rare year where the Picture and Director prize go to two separate films. This will be the year that David Fincher finally picks up his Best Director statue for his dark yet incredibly absorbing take on the tale of the creation of Facebook. Maybe now I can finally forgive the Academy for not nominating him for “Se7en” or “Fight Club.”

Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

At this point, there’s really no room for an upset. Colin Firth’s moving and inspiring portrayal of the troubled King of England will finally earn this Brit his long deserved Best Actor Oscar.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

There is a small chance that Annette Bening could pull a surprise win here after a series of snubs. Though it looks more likely that once again she’ll lose out to a younger actress (Hilary Swank beat her twice). Natalie Portman’s devastating performance as a young woman going through a psychological breakdown will earn her her first Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Seriously, does this prediction even need justification? Bale’s spot-on method acting as a crack addict and his climb to redemption are the kind of qualities the Academy always loves. Not to mention, he’s got quite a few precursor awards. And the man actually deserves this honor. Shockingly, this is Bale’s first Oscar nomination ever. It definitely won’t be his last nomination, or win, ever though.

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

There is a big chance that Hailee Steinfeld’s stellar work in “True Grit” could make her one of the youngest Oscar winners ever. Though this year, with SAG on her side, and a snub in the past (“Frozen River”), Leo looks like the likely winner for her unforgettable performance as Mickey Warde’s controlling, yet loving, mother. Honestly though, the Academy should’ve just given her a joint nomination with every single of the crazy sisters.

Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler (The King’s Speech)

This is a tough one. “Inception” took the WGA award, though the Academy’s lack of love for Christopher Nolan could be an obstacle here. “The Kids Are All Right” could score this for being funny, warm, and socially groundbreaking. Even the smart character work of “The Fighter” has a nice chance here. Though in the end, it looks most likely that the Academy will also crown its Best Picture winner with the best writing. For making the past seem so alive and entertaining, Seidler deserves a little recognition.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

No contest. Aaron Sorkin took the story of Facebook and made it both accessible and entertaining. It has already produced some of the most memorable movie quotes of the young, new decade (“If you guys were the inventors of Facebook, you would have invented Facebook.”). One could argue that the real reason that Sorkin is destined to win is that his screenplay has swept the precursors. That may be true. Though actually, anyone who can make an ending somehow comparable to Rosebud in “Citizen Kane” deserves any Oscar imaginable.

The Other Categories:

Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful

Editing: The Social Network

Cinematography: Black Swan

Score: The Social Network

Song: “If I Rise”

Art Direction: The King’s Speech

Costume Design: The King’s Speech

Sound Editing: Inception

Sound Mixing: Inception

Visual Effects: Inception

Score: The Social Network

Makeup: The Wolfman

Golden Globes ’11: Predictions

ian0592 — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 17:38:00 +0000

Over the past year, my thinking on the Golden Globes has drastically changed. Mainly, it’s come to my attention that they really don’t matter. The HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) doesn’t vote for the Oscars. Mainly though, it’s impossible to find relevance in some of these nominations. Really, how can someone be respected who nominates “Alice in Wonderland,” “Red,” and “The Tourist” for Best Comedy/Musical? There is so much wrong with this that I don’t even want to get into it right now.

Beyond that, the Golden Globes hold an inexplicable amount of importance in society. Because of that (and for Ricky Gervais), I will give you my predictions for the Golden Globes.

Now, predicting the Globes are slightly different from most other awards. Mainly, predicting the Globes involves examining a few strange possibilities (which actor is more foreign, which actor is named Johnny Depp).

Based on this tiresome and infuriating process, these are the winners you should bank on (movie categories only):

Best Drama: The Social Network

Best Comedy/Musical: The Kids Are All Right

Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor (Drama): Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

Best Actress (Drama): Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Actor (Comedy): Johnny Depp (Alice in Wonderland)

Best Actress (Comedy): Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Fighter)

Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Film: Biutiful

The Oscars: Who Will Win

ian0592 — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:46:00 +0000

While an easy year to predict the Oscars might be good for your betting pool, it’s never much fun. That’s why I’ve gotten quite a kick out of this Oscar season. My picks just kept changing and changing.

At first, I saw “Precious” as the frontrunner. It opened with an amazing amount of festival buzz and strong opening numbers. Suddenly, it’s box office glow began to fade and an unfortunate backlash followed. Then, “Up in the Air” became the critical smash of December and seemed to be the perfect Best Picture material. Then “Avatar” came along and broke every box office record imaginable and picked up a few Golden Globes on the way. At that point, “Avatar” was unstoppable.

But then, an underdog with very little Oscar qualities suddenly jumped ahead. “The Hurt Locker,” indeed a fantastic and worthy film, seemed like it would just have to be happy with a nomination. It grossed a mere $12 million (it’s the second lowest grossing Best Picture nominee this year, after “A Serious Man”), and first released in theaters last July. However, praise was beginning to overshadow clout. As “The Hurt Locker” swept the Guilds and every critics’ award imaginable, it was clear what this year’s frontrunner was.

Here now, are the films, filmmakers, actors, writers, and crew members you can bet on to take home the gold this Sunday night. I will present my predictions commentary free because I believe I’ve analyzed most of the following to death at this point:

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique

Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Best Animated Film: Up

Best Documentary: The Cove

Best Foreign Film: A Prophet

Best Editing: The Hurt Locker

Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

Best Score: Up

Best Song: The Weary Kind

Best Sound Editing: Avatar

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar

Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria

Best Makeup: Star Trek

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Best Live Action Short: The New Tenants

Best Documentary Short: Music By Prudence

Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death